Even though I get them wrong, most “famously” about Rove being indicted back when the fire was up high, I get a lot right.

A year or two ago, I moved a big chunk of my money, such as it is, to cash, to the tune of about 60%. It’s now up to 65%. And I told people to do the same.

I’m only down 10% this year. Fantastic! When talking with a friend about when to get “back in,” I said I was looking for a Dow number that started with a 9. My pal the MBA in Finance from a very good school, said the Dow wasn’t going to go below 10,000. Now I’m not so sure “9” is low enough. Pressure mounts. My time horizon is short.

In his defense, this was only a week or two ago, and even *I* didn’t think it would happen today. In fact, I offered a bet that included the Dow going below 10K by “the end of 2009.”


We’re going to need a new New Deal, that weans us from oil, that funds jobs for alternate sources, and that cleans up the spectacular mess we’ve been left both domestically and internationally. Frankly, I don’t know if Obama is up to the job, I don’t know if anyone is, but I know for sure that McCain isn’t.

Batten down the hatches is my latest prediction. It’s going to be rough water through most of ’09, and perhaps beyond. One thing I know for sure about The Man is that He doesn’t ever really tell us things are as bad as He’s made them out to be. Since it was The Man that created the mess.

Beware The Man. If you can’t stomach a vote for Obama, vote 3rd party. That’s where the real change will come from.

Living in IL, I still may, as bad as I want to step on the necks of the conservative movement. It’s a tough call for me.

Update: Shoot. Forgot to include the prediction that created the post.

From Oliver Willis.

Update 2: Another prediction, one on which the Dems have miserably failed, which relates directly to my previous post.