October 2008


John Cole, an ex-Republican who knows these things, actually goes beyond concern trolling and makes some sense.

Like John, I’m seriously worried about Dem overreach, as much as Obama’s preternaturally cautious personal aura and statements to the contrary argues against it.

We’ll see. But this IS all smart and true.

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This is pretty much all you need to know.

A legendary Chicagoan has died, and I’m sad about it, even though he was 96, and lived by any measure an incredible life.

Bless him, his family, and friends. What a great man we have lost.

Update: More, from an organization who knows.

Nate has it at about a 1/3 chance. It has been as high as 49%, IIRC.

But Nate is just doing mathematical projection; I love his site, and consider it the only one worth paying attention to this year. (Huge kudos to 538.) I’m a bit of an objectivist, stats-oriented, math geek, and I really appreciate the rigor and transparency of Nate’s site.

But that’s all just math. The atmospherics are smelling to me an awful lot like “blowout,” which would be truly historic on several levels, which I won’t bother with explaining. Emotions and other such abstract, subjective, ephemeral things are hard, to say the least, to poll. The GOP has to be a little down, which in turn has to transfer statistically to depressed turnout, and every Obama voter I know would walk through fire to get to the polls. If they haven’t already.

I’m not counting any chickens. I’ve told many a friend and family that it wouldn’t surprise me if this bunch in control was issuing silver-plattered invitations to terrorists to make some noise in the next 3 days.

But I’ve been very happy with my historical sense of the proverbial zeitgeist, accuracy-wise, and if McCain doesn’t at least split the so-called toss-ups, Obama will have a “mandate” George The Lesser would ruin another country for.

We’ll see. No predictions this time, just a sniff.

How the GOP scares Jews.”

Isn’t it how the GOP scares pretty much everyone without a functioning brain?

But only as friends. Not that there would be anything wrong with loving him any other way, it just isn’t my thing. So to each his and her own.

I posted a similar sentiment a while back.

But The Rude Pundit? He’s the Michelangelo of the form.

I am clenching my cock with a pipe wrench to hold off, and I still can’t believe she’s fucking me.

I have to avoid the fevered swamp of Wingnuttia, not just for my own sanity, but mostly because others wade in and ridicule it so much better than I do.

So, I bookmarked The Corner under “Comedy” instead of politics, and rarely venture into The Dead Brain Zone. Tonight, I remembered, and just took a brief look to see the reactions to Obama’s infomercial. They were sadly predictable.

But before I jumped out of the too-many-gene pool, I came across this intellectual gem from the ever gem-shitting Mark Steyn, who gives us this pearl of mathematical wisdom:

In a grassroots movement, you smell the green. He’s raised $600 million, as you say, in small donations. So divide it by ten bucks apiece and there’s 60 million donors. If 120 million people vote on Tuesday, and he gets 50% that equals …60 million voters! Honestly, you cynical rightwing losers, what’s so suspicious about that math?”

Ah, those tricky things called “averages.” Factored in with some made-up numbers, some equally twisted logic (50% of $10 donors vote for Obama and you have 60,000,000 voters? Gee, I wonder what happens if one $60,000,000 donor votes for Obama! Or a million $2300 voters! The mind reels with the calculus involved.) and you can have all the fun you want!

It takes at least a high school education to understand this wacky concept.

For starters, the latest reports are that the “average” donation was $86. Approximately a factor of 8.6X error in Steyn’s retardedly simplististic and paranoid turd he calls a post on a major conservative intellectual website.

And in other news, Bill Gates and I average about $87,000,000 in annual income. I’m not close to that kind of scratch! Gates’ income is a LIE. QED.

A call to arms, winguttia! Someone is fishy here! I mean, you do the math!

…passed without a single Republican vote, and it raised taxes on the wealthy.

8 years of economic disaster followed. I have trouble understanding why more Talking Heads don’t bring this up, but they’re Villagers, so I should lower my expectations.

It is going to be very interesting to watch the fallout from what increasingly looks like a landslide election. (Arizona? McCain had better hope he doesn’t lose that one.)

The blamestorming is going to be intense. Go, fake-Christian right!

Ultimately, the problem is that the American people are impatient and short-sighted. If Obama’s non-existent magic wand fails to work in two years, the moment will end. Must. Keep. Fighting.

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