One helluva a lot of people, in election after election, don’t make their decision until weeks, if not days or hours before they pull the trigger. How will they break?

I make no claims to know, but I can say with certainty that there will be a percentage who can’t vote for the only half-white guy, and I can say for sure that a percentage of women will vote for McCain-Palin just because Palin is a woman, a percentage of men will vote for her because they, like myself, love that librarian fantasy (for me, not a consideration for elected office, btw) and I can say for sure that some percentage of those late-deciding voters will make their decision rationally, on policy and politics and their own interests, and more than their own interests, the interests of the country at large.

I wish I could say I thought that last group will be the largest, but I can’t. I don’t believe anyone can.

This election is going to profoundly change virtually every polling model there is in existence. One way or another. It may turn out they have to model the racist vote a little more heavily, or it may turn out that the models’ basis need to re-evaluate the sexist math, or it may turn out that the models’ need to reconsider how many voters are paying any attention to the realities of the situation.

Given the polling status as it exists now, I’m not exactly overwhelmed with confidence that pollsters are dealing with a rational electorate. How many things can McCain-Palin distort and or just flat out lie about before X% of the electorate says, “Eewwww!”?

So far, not close to enough. And here comes the influence of Media Man.

Media Man seems right about now to be a spurned high school lover when it comes to McCain. He’s made them his pals, invited them to his BBQ’s, and has made Media Man almost obviously and embarrassingly reluctant to criticize McCain on any issue, for the past 10 years or so.

Will it last? My own feeling is that Media Man has come to the conclusion that McCain, likable as he may be, is dangerously fucked up. (Using political-science terms only.)

But ya never know. Personal allegiances run deep.

I’m awfully glad I have Nov. 5 off work, because I’ll need it to watch history, regain hope–yeah, “hope,” sue me, but if makes you feel better it won’t be much hope–or figure out how to deal with a decaying-from-the-inside country.

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