Not that I think anyone is. We make our best guesses. That recent tape making the rounds, of Jim Cramer talking about Bear Stearns, gave me intense satisfaction. And a good belly laugh.
But, it occurs to me that I could market myself by pointing out what *I* did, proving it, and selling the opposite strategy! Brilliant, no?
Sure, I’m a 100% passive investor, but I DO get the opportunity to move stuff around between my huge diversified and indexed fund options.
This post by Matt got me to thinking about all these things, because my last “move” (a very small one) has turned out to be a bad one for me financially. But that’s because I only did it a week ago.
I’m still pretty “confident.” I think it is because I follow the fundamentals. Buy low, sell high. Accounting and tax law and practice make it too hard for anyone to actually know where the money is, or perhaps more precisely there is competition to both hide the money and find it. Complexity is in Hiding Man’s vested interest. Hiding money is not good for society.
And Bush, even if he’s only near it, breaks it.
Fundamentals.
